Gold Breaks Out
Why is no one talking about the breakout in gold today?
After months of range-bound price action and diminishing trading volume, gold traded to a 3-month high, with the SPDR Gold Trust trading its highest volume since March. The breakout completes a classic cup-with-handle pattern, at both 3-year and 6-month scales. For the past few months, the price of gold has also been tracing a roughly symmetrical tightening triangle pattern, culminating in today’s bullish breakout.
On what is probably the most important trading day for gold over the past year and a half, today’s financial headlines are completely oblivious. The big news stories either ignore or gold and focus on the rather bland trading in the stock market, or if they mention gold at all it is in the context of the weaker dollar or “momentum buying.”
Of all days, Fitch even released a research report this afternoon suggesting that the short-term future of gold will be range-bound with a bias toward falling. Did they even check the price today?
Note the symmetrical triangle and breakout.
I imagine that some trading desks and enthusiasts are very excited about today’s move. If you examine a six-month chart or even a two-year chart, today’s breakout appears particularly bullish—and in some ways it is—but it pays to not get too carried away. Everybody knows that gold has posted significant returns over the past decade, and gold enthusiasts will tell you that there’s plenty more to come. And the fundamentals for gold support their case: the dollar is weak, the government is growing, markets are volatile, there is continued geopolitical stress around the world, and swine flu is just the most recent looming threat to our health. One source even reported yesterday on the accelerating accumulation of gold by the world’s central banks.
All of this—combined with today’s bullish breakout—points to a new massive bull run in the price of gold. The only weakness in the case is the long-term technical analysis. Since 2001, gold has experienced three major upward thrusts. In so doing it completed a classical Elliott Wave pattern. In a sufficiently liquid investment instrument, Elliott Wave theory suggests that three consecutive bullish waves are almost inevitably followed by a major correction (which gold experience last year, falling from almost $1000 per ounce to just above $700).
Note the 3 bullish waves (2001-04, 2005-06, 2007-08).
Since it is occurring at the top of the Elliott Wave cycle without a sufficiently linked the intervening correction period, the cup-with-handle pattern traced by gold’s correction and quick recovery over the past year is a “late stage base.” Late stage bases, as Bill O’Neil points out, are prone to a high rate of failure. Failure in this case would mean that the bullish breakout is short-lived and smaller than expected.
Based on these and other considerations, including comparison to similar patterns elsewhere, I believe it is reasonable to predict that, from today’s close of $978.50, gold will reach $1250 or perhaps $1300 before the end of the year (and silver may climb to $23). My analysis indicates that this price will be a long-term top to the bull market in gold, after which (one model indicates) the price may decline as much as 50% by the end of 2010.
Religion and Racism: Anecdote Proves Nothing
If you have spent much time trying to talk to religious people about philosophy, you have no doubt had someone tell you that they believe in God because of a “personal experience.” It doesn’t seem to matter what rational arguments you bring to bear on the conversation, or what evidence you present. At some point they will tell you that they just believe in God because they have had an “experience” and that since you cannot disprove their experience, you cannot disprove their belief.
I have spent countless hours and conversations running in circles around this question. I have tried asking religious people how, if they expect me to believe them based on their self-reported personal experience, they don’t believe people from other religions who claim to have entirely different personal experiences. I have asked why, if their entire belief system is based on personal experience and has nothing to do with what other people told them, they bother talking to other people about their beliefs; why not just let God reveal himself? I have tried pointing out that it is not valid for them to make generalizations about the universe based only on anecdotal personal experience, especially if that personal experience contradicts all other experiences and all other evidence. I have tried to ask how a vague and mysterious “experience” that they often have difficulty even putting into words somehow translates into a validation of the very concrete and specific stories and dogma found in the Bible.
But the conversation never works; it’s all too abstract. I can never connect with them at an emotional level. In order to do that, we need a metaphor.
I am not the first to draw a connection between religion and racism, but I hope to put forward something you can use proactively in a debate.
When a religious person tells you that her “personal experience” is proof that God created the world and sent Jesus Christ to be your personal savior, that is fundamentally no different from a racist who tells you that his “personal experience” is proof that all black people are criminals or that all Jews are cheats.
When it comes to race, we accept that generalizations about a group based merely on reports about individuals within that group are not valid. We also understand that because such generalizations are so obviously unreasonable, the anecdotes upon which they are based cannot truly be the reason for the beliefs. Instead such anecdotes are merely justification masquerading as evidence. When a racist tells you about the lazy Hispanic man he used to know and proceeds to use that acquaintance as “proof” that all Hispanic men are lazy, it is obvious that he began with the racist belief and that his story about his lazy acquaintance is merely an attempt to justify that belief to himself and to you.
In the same way, generalizations about the universe, society, or human nature that are based only on individual self-reports and personal anecdotes are equally invalid. Your religious friend would have you believe that she started with a blank slate and worked from the ground up, that the power of her experience made her particular conclusions about the existence of God inescapable. But, just as with racism, the belief comes first. Once the bigotry has been firmly established in her mind, she begins to look for “proof” to justify it.
You can apply this analogy to debates in multiple ways. If a religious person starts to tell you how their belief in God is based on “personal experience,” then you can start by asking them whether the principle is universal. Do they accept all beliefs that are supported by individual personal experiences? If it is valid for them to assert a belief about God based on their self-reported personal experiences, then they must accept all forms of religion, racism, or political beliefs that are “supported” by personal experience. (They must also, by the way, accept your assertion that they are wrong based on your personal experiences.)
You might also try changing the subject a little by asking them how they would confront a racist. What tactics would they use to persuade the racist that his personal experiences did not validate his conclusions? Will the religious person accept that the racist’s use of “personal experience” to back up his racism is invalid?
A note of caution: making such a clear and undeniable analogy between religion and racism is going to make the conversation extremely volatile. I suspect that even the best-case scenario for this interaction will be that the conversation comes to an immediate end, and that the person you were talking to experiences a personal crisis over the coming days and weeks. It’s okay to bring the conversation to a close at that point so they can think; if you pressure them for an immediate response they will probably become too defensive for any productive resolution to be achieved. If in the end their integrity outweighs their bigotry, then they may come around. But if they cling more tightly to their bigotry even after you have exposed it as such, then I doubt they will ever talk to you again.
If you use this analogy in conversations with people, please let me know how it works for you. Also let me know if you think of any other ways to deal with the problem of “proof by personal experience.”
“Fire Dancing”"
The dancers rise to smear the sky
With light and color of fire bright.
A pit is dug at the scene of the ritual,
And a fire is kindled within its sphere.
The tiny flame thirsts for the fuel that it needs
From the pieces of driftwood and splinters of boards.
Slowly the flame fingers reach out and upward,
As they consume the fuel so tenderly added
By the five dancers whose faces are hidden.
A handful of dust and the fire leaps
With a thirst unmatched by the ravenous wolf;
A flare of light fills the midnight sky,
Then dies away as silence fills the air.
A dancer tiptoes toward the tongues
As eight dust-filled fists fan the flames to engulf
His legs—his chest—his arms—his head.
The fire lingers on him for a moment;
Then all is dark once more and quiet.
The one in the mask stands behind the others,
And chants the song of triumph and glory.
2006
Not the End, but the Beginning
There are some big problems in our world today, and people are looking for answers. Given the difficulty of our task, and it would be convenient if we could rely on some existing institutions to help us figure out what to do, or at least where to start. Unfortunately the answers we are given are often not just wrong answers, but non-answers.
For example, ethics is an important problem, surrounded by difficult questions. But the answers people give us are not very useful.
Why should I be good?—“Because God will punish you if you aren’t!”
What is the definition of ‘good’?—“Whatever your parents or teachers tell you!”
How do I know what is good?—“You cannot know anything!”
We have all heard these and other non-answers. When we don’t know the answer to important questions about how to live our lives, we experience great anxiety. Because almost no one can answer these questions, almost everyone just makes up answers to avoid that anxiety.
Social organization is another complex subject.
How should I resolve disputes?—“Have the government shoot people if they disagree with you!”
How can I protect my property?—“Have the government seize half of it in taxes first!”
What is the best way to protect myself?—“Have the government threaten your life and create international instability!”
Two institutions in particular are responsible for perpetuating these non-answers: the church, and the state.
When we clear away the illusion of answers and realize the truth that we do not know the best way to answer these questions, then we can finally start to solve them.
The end of religion is not the end of ethics, but the beginning.
The end of the state is not the end of social order, but the beginning.
Honesty and voluntarism are not the end of virtue, but the beginning.
Investing in Violence
A lot of people these days are interested in socially conscious investing. I think it’s wonderful that investors are starting to look for investment opportunities that don’t support ills such as worker exploitation or environmental degradation. But there is one area of socially conscious investing that I haven’t heard much discussion about: government violence.
When you invest in government bonds, you are investing in present and future violence. In the present, you are loaning the government money that it will use to engage in a number of violent activities (like waging war, operating prisons, and financing international terrorism). Over the course of the loan, both principal and interest will be paid for by coercive taxation.
To the extent that you (or your mutual funds) buy government bonds, you are driving down the rate of interest at which the government can borrow to finance its evil deeds, making violence that much more profitable.
It is not enough that we avoid investing in companies that engage in unethical behavior. We must also be aware that in our attempt to “balance” our portfolios and find “safety” in turbulent markets by investing in government, we are investing in—and benefitting from—violence.
The Best of Freedomain Radio
The following is a list of my favorite podcasts from Stefan Molyneux’s Freedomain Radio, for those in search of his best material or a condensed stream:
Complete through podcast 1300…
1. The Stateless Society – An Examination of Alternatives
Life without government? Really? Here’s how it works – and why it is so crucial!
2. Caging the Devils: The Stateless Society and Violent Crime
Can a society without a government deal with violent crime?
3. These Cages Are Only For Beasts
The DRO debate continues…
5. Using the state for self-defense…
We always argue that we need the state for self-defense. Some logical problems with that approach
8. Proving Libertarian Morality
One of the central challenges faced by libertarians is the need to prove that libertarian moral theory is universally correct, while statist and collectivistic moral theories are incorrect. Here’s how to do it!
17. Dealing with Non-Libertarians Part 2
We all have to deal with non-libertarians – how can we do that most productively?
32. Liberty Under The Lash
How can we be free when the state is so powerful?
34. Moral Responsibility and Social Security
A great criticism of my ideas – and an analysis of social security!
37. What is Libertarianism?
A primer to share with baffled friends
40. Fleeing Eden
An analysis of the power of the Genesis myth
41. Power or Virtue? (A Love Story)
More explorations of Old Testament myths
46. Voting
It’s only a party for those in power
53. War Part 2
The real targets of warfare
67. Property Rights
The argument from morality in regard to property rights
68. Helping the Poor
Benevolence, charity and the welfare state
70. How to control a human soul
The ABC’s of totalitarianism – not to be used for evil!
71. Culture: How to enslave a human soul
The carrot that comes after the stick
78. Running to Lions for Safety
How is government protection working out?
80. Advice to the Young at Heart
You say you want a revolution? Some possible tips for wee freedom fighters…
86. Top Ten Myths About Libertarianism
Answers to the most common objections/questions (Feel free to distribute this to those baffled by your weird beliefs!)
88. Human Beings – Good or Evil?
An examination of duality
105. Environmentalism Part 3: Public/Private Greed
Understanding public self-interest (If private citizens don’t care about preserving property, why would bureaucrats?)
109. But *my* parents were really nice! (Part 1)
Some further explorations of the theory of parental corruption
113. But *my* parents were really nice! (Part 5: Freedom)
Why learning the truth about your parents is so, so important!
131. Does Government Decrease Violence?
Everyone argues that we need the government to control violence – In fact, having a government ensures violence will always increase!
133. Personal Freedom and Responsibility
Is integrity a choice, or a responsibility?
141. The Libertarian Love Doctor – Trusting Instincts Part 2
How to rationally trust your instincts
142. The Matriarchy at War
The tricky task of raising a soldier (or, the umbilical cord-ite)
156. The Social Contract Part 2: Facts
CIA archives help us understand the ’social contract’
183. Freedom Part 4: Parents (and everything!)
The whole point of what I’ve been leading up to…
184. Empathy Part 1
Speaking volumes by asking questions
185. Empathy Part 2
How to feel for the un-free
189: An Invitation to Christians Part 1: Saving Your Soul
OK, so God exists – how should we best worship him?
196: Parenting Part 1: Credibility
Reducing conflict by earning respect
211: Childhood Prisons
A theory as to why my article ‘Stateless Prisons’ made people so upset!
234: Contempt
The final antidote to false morality
239: Global Warming As Metaphor
What horrors do fears of global warming mask?
240: The Greatest Argument Against The State
Removing the silencers from the guns of governments…
245: The Arrogance of Fantasies
We rationalists are often called arrogant for asking for proof…
249: Libertarians, the ‘minimal state’ and basic logic
Small state, huuuuge error!
258: The Subtle Corruption of State Banking
How our masters keep us on a foggy leash
263: Dealing with Passive Aggression (Part 1)
Chewing your way out of the trap
264: Dealing with Passive Aggression (Part 2)
Almost there now… Just a few… more… chews!
268: Debating Freedom Without Solutions Part 1
What if we waited before offering solutions?
269: Debating Freedom Without Solutions Part 2
What if we waited before offering solutions?
275: Enron
The visible fist versus the invisible hand
290: Why We Hurt The Ones We Love (Part 2)
How the victim controls the abuser
297: Aggression Versus Assertion
How to defend your values without attacking others
299: The Crystal Ball Collapse
An explanation for my 10-15 year prediction of collapse?
304: Conversational Bombs
Clues as to whether people giving advice are really trying to help you
320: Call In Show July 9 2006
A silver-tongued listener reveals his inner voices, an article preview, a live dream analysis, and new ways to use the argument from morality!
327: The Rise of Evil Part 2: Theory
A theory about conditions for the inevitable escalation of evil
328: The Rise of Evil Part 3: Experiments
A theory about conditions for the inevitable escalation of evil
341: Conflict Resolution Part 3: Rules
Christina and I talk about our rules for resolving conflicts…
348: Escaping Your Family Step By Step – Part 2
Reciprocity is freedom..!
360: Call-In Show Aug 6 2006
Fistfights, War in the Middle East, the ‘honor’ of the South, and more!
381: Loving the ‘Sheeple’
How to love the majority like they never hurt you…
390: Statist Intellectuals Part 1
The start of a very, very troubling idea…
401 Who is to blame? (continued from 391)
Combing over who takes the rap for the hell of the world
406 Who Is To Blame Part 3: Parents?
The mind that tells the child rules the world
407 Who Is To Blame Part 4: A possible answer…
It’s probably not who you think…
412 Nit Picky City
Get out of the lifeboat! Detonating the ‘gray areas’ of morality
445 Anti-Masculinity Part 2
Taking pride in being a man!
448 Empiricism and Nonsense Part 1: Church
A brief history of belief and disbelief
449 Empiricism and Nonsense Part 2: State
A brief history of belief and disbelief continued…
450 Libertopia
The longitude and latitude of freedom’s capital
451 Christina’s Family Letter Part 1
A complex letter from her family…
454 Anarchy Is What We Have
If you think that anarchy is something to be feared, take a look around…
455 Philosophy Is Laughter
The purpose of thought is joy…
473 Children: Selfish and Evil? (Part 2)
The root of statism is our view of children
479 Freedom From Lists
A woman’s work is never done…
482 Goals and Tension – Stef needs help!
Can we have life goals without tension? For me, at least, not so far!
485 Gods and Politicians – A response to user posts
One is the shark, the other the blood, the result a feeding frenzy on your freedoms!
487 Anarchy 101
All the anarchistic philosophy I could stuff into under 40 minutes…
497 Intermittent Slavery
Tales from the pens of the owned
501 The Physics of Freedom – Two Essential Principles
Two of the greatest gateways to freedom
503 The Optimism of Euphemisms
504 The ‘Good’ Wife… (With Christina)
The search for perfection / Is all very well / But to look for heaven / Is to live here in hell
511 Agnosticism Part 2
Logical and emotional problems with the agnostic position
515 The History Of Religion Part 2
Rank speculation on the genesis of gods
559 Art Part 4
Emotional arguments for ethics
564: Shadow Governments
What governments reveal about society
614 Political Libertarianism Part 2
Just because it’s a party, doesn’t mean it’s fun…
639 Loving A Philosopher (advice for girlfriends/wives)
…it’s probably even better than you think!
649 Locked in the trunk of a car…
A political solution to shopping
650 Call In Show Feb 18 2007
Amazon adventures and past lives
661 Teenage Depression Part 1 Threat
The genesis of the fall
662 Teenage Depression Part 2 Losing Love
The fall
669 Dr No – Friend or Foe?
Congressman Ron Paul and the future of freedom
694 Foo Fighter (Video Available)
A listener breaks the chains!!!
712 Sarcasm…
Where does it rank in the moral hierarchy?
729 Your Children Do NOT Love You…
…but they will hate you if you think they do!
731 Success and Freedomain Radio Part 2 – The Future
The long view of FDR success
735 We are not born small…
The size of our souls is the depth of our opposition
741 Religion As Comfort for Evil
God does comfort people, just not any of the good ones…
744 Social Reality – Mythology Part 2
How to tell a screenplay from a documentary…
754 Fleeing Freedom
A dream, a backstory, a liberation!
755 Man, Family and State
A new article…
764 Sunday Call In Show, May 20 2007
Withdrawing from Iraq, a fan of Uncle Joe, Agnosticism/Catholicism and Stef’s manipulations!
774 My Son, Klan Reformer – A Political Fable
A fable for modern times…
785 Slavery and Statism
Slavery was ended by political activism – shouldn’t we take the same approach?
831 Respect for Women
Doing right by the fairer sex – it’s probably not what you think…
835 Enlightened Parenting
Choice is quality.
839 Sunday Call In Show August 12 2007
Stef confronts an abuser, the self-knowledge of determinism, and God as a parasite…
853 Managing Other People’s Emotions
How to avoid one of the most subtle prisons of all…
858 Reason, Passion and Statism
Instructive stories from my academic career…
863 Son Versus Nihilists – A Listener Conversation
A son squares off against his parents
867 Dismantling the State
Dealing with a core illusion
885 Hope for the future…
A speech to raise your hopes
911: Unenslaving (A Listener Conversation)
Throwing off the final shackles of our early prisons…
912: Standing in blood (audio to a video)
The latest from Iraq
915: Drugging Children
A drug that reduces the intelligence of hundreds of millions of children…
926 The Obligations of Doctors
The next ace up my sleeve…
947 The Next Thing (Part 1)
The opening salvo of part 3 of our conversation.
955 An Open Letter to Ron Paul Supporters (Video Available)
Don’t give up hope – liberty is at hand!
965 Mike Tyson: Girl Guide (A listener couple conversation)
Never underestimate your enemies.
966 Procrastination… (Video Available)
…finally!
982 The Government turns Everyone into a Tool…
Two examples of moral corruption…
988 Anatomy of a Relationship Part 2: Control
The effects of control…
1002 Freedom from Politics
…in which I attempt to give you back at least 10% of your life…
1017 False Currency, Real Control (The Housing Bubble)
A free market analysis of the housing bubble.
1020 Happy Easter Jesus! (Video Available)
I have a present for you…
1031 Politics Versus Anarchy
Are anarchists mere dreamers? Is political activism the way to go?
1045 The Atheists, the Mormons, and the Baby… (a couple convo)
What do you do when one side of a family is atheist, and the other Mormon?
1046 Philosophy Debating Tips
How to have more fun debating philosophy!
1053 Friendships – The Conference Call
How to tell the living from the dying from the dead…
1055 In Praise of Personal Attacks…
Are personal attacks ever warranted, just or fair? Well…
1058 Proof of Anarchy
A simple proof that anarchy will work.
1061 Political Action – One Last Time!
Tidying up a few loose ends…
1062 The Virtue of Enemies
The pride of being hated.
1066 Everyday Anarchy – The Conference Call Part 3
Even more feedback and examination of the arguments of the book ‘Everyday Anarchy’…
1067 Train the Trainer vs Political Action
Some thoughts on where we are as a movement.
1077 Tension (Part 1)
The social challenges of Freedomain Radio.
1078 Tension (Part 2)
The storm before the calm…
1086 Objectivism and UPB Part 1
Do we have innate knowledge about right and wrong? Two approaches…
1105 Motivation and Slavery (Video)
Some thoughts on a TED talk by Anthony Robbins
1107 Sunday Call In Show July 13 2008
Some big little news; confidence in contribution – and navigating a breakup…
1110 Bringing Virtue to Families
Families, freedom and virtue – the theory.
1111 Families, Abuse and History
The history of the world is the history of childhood.
1114 Freedom, Desire, Slavery
Why we want the freedom we have never had – a pretty essential podcast.
1120 Sunday Call In Show Aug 3 2008
The FDR wiki, why do you want to change others, and trusting your instincts in a job interview.
1122 The Roots of Male Violence
A reading from psychohistory.
1124 Attacking Mothers
An article reading…
1126 The Childhood Origins of World War II and the Holocaust
An article reading.
1128 The Drug of Truth
The pushers are out there…
1129 Life Among the Suited Savages
Don’t startle them…
1132 Killer Motherland – psychohistory.com
A powerful article by Lloyd deMause
1133 The Psychology and Neurobiology of Violence
A powerful article by Lloyd deMause
1156 The Empire Strikes Out (Video)
An analysis of the current US economic crisis from Freedomain Radio – what is going on, and why.
1157 Truth as Fetish
Opinions are ugly lovers…
1167 Current Events – Is Sarah Palin a Bimbo? (Video)
Is it fair to call Sarah Palin a bimbo? I say: nope! Plus, 700 billion dollars? We might as well say 700 billion elves…
1169 House, MD – A Free Market Analysis of the Financial Crisis (Video)
A free market analysis of how we ended up in the current financial crisis — and a simple sentence to clear it up for everyone else!
1177 Theories of War and Violence (Video)
An examination of moral theories of war and violence using Raskolnikov from ‘Crime and Punishment’ and the Joker from ‘The Dark Night.’
1183 The World as Hurt Child…
Love the world, despite history.
1187 Sympathy versus Anger
Sometimes I feel anger towards my parents, and sometimes I feel sympathy and pity — here is how I resolved the dichotomy.
1189 True News 5: Voting (Video)
The truth about voting…
1190 Overcoming Guilt (Video)
These three simple questions will free you from unjust guilt and self-attack…
1192 Voting Part 2: Understanding Voting (Video)
Why begging politicians for pennies back on the dollar will never set you free.
1197 Aiming at the Headstone
What will people say at your funeral..?
1198 True News 7: The Truth About Voting Part 3 – Yay Obama! (Video)
Soooo, you chose the brother over the granddad – and this libertarian could not be happier!
1199 Agnostic Psychology — A Theory
A theory which might explain the general prevalence and emotional intensity of agnosticism.
FDR1204 My Major Contribution to Philosophy
It is in fact embarrassingly simple…
FDR1208 Remembrance Day 2008 (Video)
Did millions really die to set us free?
FDR1210 The Guardian Article – Sunday Call In Show Nov 16 2008
Hey, we finally hit the mainstream!
FDR1219 True News 13: Statism is Dead – Part 3 – The Matrix (Video)
You do not live in a country. Take the red pill.
FDR1226 Freedom Reason, Cults (Video)
What happens when we apply dictionary definitions of ‘cult’ to mainstream institutions?
FDR1229 Statism is Dead Part 5: Statism and Terrorism (Video)
Statism is terrorism.
FDR1233 Free Will, Determinism And Self Knowledge – Part 1
The bare bones of a new theory about determinism, free will and self-knowledge…
FDR1236 Sunday Call In Show Dec 21 – Baby and Birth
Christina and I talk about the birth of our daughter and our first few days as parents…
FDR1240 Holiday Blues and Interviews
Two thoughts to brighten your holiday season.
FDR1245 The Meaning of Life Part 3 – Integrity as Salvation
How and why philosophy brings happiness…
FDR1256 True News 17 — Media Accusations Part Two – Cult?
Responses to the recent articles about Freedomain Radio – an eight part analysis of Freedomain Radio as cult.
FDR1265 The Trial and Death of Socrates – Part Six – Conclusions
Revenge.
FDR1278 True News 19: Somalia Part 2
Some responses to listener criticisms.
FDR1279 True News 20: God Flip-Flops on Darwin!
Soooo, the Vatican is attempting to rehabilitate Darwin?
FDR1280 Melancholy and Anger – A Listener Conversation
A listener awakens from despair.
FDR1284 True News 21: What To Do About the Coming Depression (Video)
The root causes and only solution for what we all face.
FDR1295 The Rise of Corruption Part 3 – Avoiding Self-Knowledge
The genesis of goo part 3.
FDR1299 The Truth Has No Power
Something we so often forget…
“Drifts of Snow Petals”
Winds rage
and beat branches
against my window.
In the night
the first storm of spring
rips delicate flowers.
Tomorrow
I will walk
among drifts of snow
petals beneath the pear trees.
How to be Unstoppable
Have you ever tried to talk to someone about philosophy and had the conversation go precisely nowhere? Your evidence was overwhelming and your arguments eloquent, but the other person only got defensive and somehow the discussion ended with everyone holding the same position as when it started.
This has happened to me a number of times, and it is very discouraging to say the least. I have been thinking about it a lot lately and I think I have a solution. It goes like this: If your motivation to talk about philosophy is more about yourself than about the other person, then you are bound to fail. Let me explain.
People subconsciously “get” whether our motivation for talking to them about philosophy comes from a genuine desire to help them or from a desperate wish to avoid our own anxiety. If we are motivated by a genuine desire for them to be happy, then people will sense our benevolence and we will at least have a chance of getting around their defenses. However if our motivation is more about relieving our own anxiety, then it makes sense that they will become defensive and we should expect no other outcome. If we are feeling anxiety and are not aware of it, then we will project it onto the world and the person we are talking to will feel it instead. This conversation is difficult enough for people without us burdening them with our anxiety too.
When it comes to politics, we recognize that statists hold a belief which justifies the initiation of violence. Because of the aggressive nature of that belief, we sometimes feel that we must be aggressive “back” toward them during the debate as a matter of “self-defense.” But that’s not how they experience it. All they know is that they have a belief which, given the propaganda to which they have been subjected, seems perfectly reasonable to them, and we are attacking them for it. The trouble with this interaction is that the philosopher, who claims to be a pacifist, is in fact initiating the aggression! It is wildly hypocritical and self-defeating to talk about the virtue of voluntarism while simultaneously initiating aggression, no matter what the other person’s abstract theory says about violence.
In a culture as hostile and propagandized as ours, philosophy can be a rather alienating and isolating way of life. It is important to determine our own motivation for encouraging others to join us. Do we want others to join us in the pursuit of philosophical understanding so that they can be happy, or do we want them to join us so that we can have friends? People are watching our actions to see whether our words are true. If we try to tell them how great philosophy is but we spend most of our time desperately trying to convert others or lashing out at people who disagree with us, then we are not living in freedom and no one is going to believe us. People will not want to follow us if the benefits do not outweigh the costs. We say that the benefits (being free) outweigh the costs (being isolated), but do we live that way?
Why would someone want to join us in pursuing philosophy? If philosophy creates anxiety, loneliness, and desperation, then what do we have to offer people? If philosophy is not liberating, why on earth would anyone want to join us?
We must understand that people fundamentally want to live in freedom. They know that something is wrong with the world and that the answers everyone is putting forward have been tried and failed. They are looking for the answers that we have. But how can they tell the difference between the truth that we have discovered and the lies that everyone else is telling them? What are the odds that the truth is exactly the opposite of what people have heard all their lives? Of all the people in the world, why should they believe us? The only laboratory they have in which to test our ideas is the laboratory of our own lives. We cannot expect them to take our word for it. Nobody wants to be someone else’s guinea pig.
Before getting involved with someone in a conversation about philosophy, ask yourself: “Is my desire to talk to this person motivated by anxiety or generosity?” If you are motivated by anxiety then you are worse than wasting time. You are actively discrediting philosophy and giving philosophers a bad name.
If philosophy is making us happy, then we should show others that happiness through open and honest interactions with them. Only then will they have curiosity about us and what we have to say. On the other hand, if philosophy is not making us happy, then we should not try to convince others to follow us. We don’t want to lead them down the wrong path.
To be the truly effective communicators that we want to be, we need to work on ourselves and be sure that we are on the path to virtue and happiness. Then a genuine desire to help others will arise organically from within us, people will sense our authenticity, and we will be unstoppable. We have a beautiful gift to give the world. Let’s show the world what happiness philosophy can bring.
Madoff Made Off?
For every catastrophe, someone has to take the fall. This time the fall guy is Bernard Madoff.
That’s not to say that he isn’t guilty—he did after all admit to defrauding investors of as much as $65 billion. According to reports, Madoff misled investigators, stole from investors, and probably ruined a lot of people’s lives. It has been called the largest ponzi scheme in American history, and its collapse severely damaged the portfolios of major banks, insurance companies, pension funds, and charitable foundations. People across the nation are morally outraged. One commentator claims the scandal is even to blame for falling investor confidence that “could keep Baby Boomers away from equities.”
It’s all a very effective distraction, isn’t it? Everybody gets to show a little outrage and feel like the bad guys are being taken care of. But as long as we focus only on Madoff and his crimes, we will fail to recognize the magnitude of the crime that is happening all around us.
The largest ever ponzi scheme did collapse last year, but it wasn’t Bernard Madoff’s investment fund. It was the stock market.
A ponzi scheme is “a fraudulent investment operation that pays returns to investors from their own money or money paid by subsequent investors rather than from any actual profit earned.”
For years real estate prices have been pushed artificially higher by fraudulent government policies. As time passed the fraud grew and became more lucrative, and people invested in it—both financially and psychologically. Just like other ponzi schemes, the bigger the fraud got the more people had to be involved in order to sustain it. Investment houses opened new funds and sold the promise of easy money, while ratings agencies used models which assumed housing prices would rise forever. As long as new money poured in, existing investors continued to get paid—a characteristic of any ponzi scheme. By the time investors acted on all the distorted economic signals and bad information, the value of investments was completely detached from reality. When new money stopped coming in and prices stopped going up, the collapse was both swift and brutal.
Losses from the Madoff scheme pale in comparison to the losses suffered as a result of last year’s financial collapse. It was but a miniscule parasitical offspring of a much bigger global ponzi scheme. The “never-ending boom” rippling outward from the housing market created the illusion of prosperity for its victims, but it eventually collapsed as all ponzi schemes must.
Global financial losses from the collapse have been estimated as high as $50 trillion, exceeding losses from the Madoff scheme by almost 1000 times. The reason people focus so much on the Madoff case is that he can be easily punished, while the government is legally invincible.
It is irresponsible to focus so much on relatively minor crimes that we fail to see the larger crimes happening all around us. Yes, Madoff made off with a lot of money, but he’s a little fish in a big pond. Let’s stop pretending that he’s the biggest criminal in town and start focusing our moral outrage where it belongs.
RSS Feed
Proud Supporter
